Mental modelUse the model to simplify a difficult commitment decision. It is a lens, not a substitute for evidence.
First-order thinking
The discount wins the deal. The faster date satisfies the customer. The custom integration removes an objection. Each statement can be true.
Second-order thinking
What does the discount do to delivery buffer? What does the faster date do to specialist capacity? What precedent does the custom integration create? What does the SLA do to support design?
Use in review
For every major concession, ask “and then what?” twice. The first answer is usually visible. The second often contains the cost.
Avoid over-analysis
The model is useful when it focuses on material consequences, not every imaginable chain of events.
A good commitment is not only attractive at the moment of sale. It remains sensible after the consequences arrive.