Mental modelUse the model to simplify a difficult commitment decision. It is a lens, not a substitute for evidence.
The model
Assume the commitment went badly. Ask the team to explain why. This often surfaces concerns that are difficult to raise when everyone is focused on winning.
Apply it quickly
Give the team ten minutes. Ask for the three most plausible reasons margin eroded, implementation slipped or the customer escalated.
Turn stories into checks
Map each reason to evidence, dependency, term interaction or authority. The exercise becomes useful when it changes the decision inputs.
Avoid theatrical pessimism
The purpose is not to imagine catastrophe. It is to surface realistic failure paths while there is still time to repair them.
Hindsight is cheap. A pre-mortem tries to borrow a little of it before the promise is made.